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Home December 2025

The Financing Gap in Sports: Unlocking a $2.5 Trillion Opportunity

Sports are no longer just culture or entertainment; they are a scalable, investable asset class. Financing this business is becoming one of today’s most compelling growth stories—and where the next records are poised to be broken.

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Key Takeaways

  • A $2.5 Trillion Global Industry: Sports have expanded far beyond tickets and local sponsorships into a diversified global ecosystem spanning media, merchandise, wellness, and live entertainment—with scalable monetization across multiple channels.
  • Media Rights as the Growth Engine: Live sports remain the strongest driver of mass audiences, supporting more than $60 billion in annual, inflation-linked media contracts that anchor franchise valuations and function like long-duration, infrastructure-style revenue streams.
  • Institutional Capital Enters the Game: As valuations exceeded the reach of individual owners, leagues opened the door to private equity, sovereign wealth funds, and pensions. Institutional participation is still early, giving first movers a structural advantage in navigating league frameworks, underwriting risk, and establishing credibility.
  • Durable, Scarce, and Culturally Entrenched: Sports assets have compounded at roughly 13% annually for six decades. Their scarcity, global reach, and deep emotional resonance make them unusually resistant to technological change and macro volatility.
  • A Financing Opportunity Ahead: With most franchises still under-levered at around 10% loan-to-value and traditional lenders slow to engage, significant whitespace remains for private credit and hybrid financing solutions to optimize balance sheets, unlock liquidity, and capture equity-like upside with credit-like risk.
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The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.


Important Disclosure Information

This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.

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The US Retirement Crisis

Fewer than one in six US workers aged 45 to 54 contribute the maximum to their 401(k) accounts, see chart below. Coupled with rising costs, inadequate savings and the looming depletion of the Social Security trust fund, these factors underscore a retirement crisis in the US, requiring many households to boost their savings to achieve stable and sufficient income in retirement.

Share of workers who max out their 401(k) contributions, by age
Sources: How America Saves 2025, Vanguard, Apollo Chief Economist

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Expected Returns in Public Equities Over the Coming Years

The historical relationship between the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio and subsequent 10-year annualized returns shows that investors should expect to get zero in return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade, see chart below.

S&P 500 forward P/E ratio vs subsequent 10-year annualized returns
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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A Mystery in Fixed Income

Why are long-term interest rates going up when the Fed is cutting rates, see the first chart? Is the market worried about growing Treasury issuance, or about a new Fed leadership effectively raising the inflation target from 2% to, say, 4%?

The reality is that about a year ago, long-term interest rates started drifting higher than what would have been predicted by short-term interest rates and oil prices, see the second and third charts.

This pattern of rising long-term interest rates is highly unusual when we look at the historical reaction during Fed cutting cycles, see the fourth chart.

The bottom line is that the yield curve continues to steepen, and investors across all asset classes need to think about why, see the fifth chart.

Long-term interest rates are higher today than when the Fed began to cut interest rates in September 2024
Sources: Federal Reserve, US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Long rates have disconnected from short rates
Sources: Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
10-year Treasury yield higher than what oil prices would have predicted
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Normally when the Fed starts cutting, long-term interest rates also decline
Note: 2001 is from Jan 2001 to June 2003, 2007 is from September 2007 to December 2008, 2019 is from August 2019 to March 2020 and 2024 is from September 2024 to December 2025. Sources: Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Spread between 30s and 10s continues to widen
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

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More $1 Billion+ Deals in Private Markets

After the Fed started raising interest rates in 2022, more deals over $1 billion have moved from IPOs to private markets, see chart below.

The number of $1 billion+ deals that are IPOs vs. private deals
Note: Data as of December 8th, 2025. Sources: PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist

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40% of Small-Cap Companies Have No Earnings

Forty percent of companies in the Russell 2000 Index have no earnings, see chart below.

40% of Russell 2000 companies have no earnings
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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31% of Wealth Owned by People Over 70

A record-high share of total wealth in the household sector is owned by people that are more than 70 years old, see chart below.

US: A rising share of total wealth is held by people more than 70 years old
Sources: Federal Reserve, Apollo Chief Economist

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The Duration Mismatch in the Banking Sector Is a Risk to Financial Stability

A bank takes overnight deposits from checking accounts and lends them out for the next 10 years. This fundamental mismatch between the duration of assets and liabilities in the banking sector is a major problem, particularly in a world where more and more households and firms can withdraw and transfer funds simply by pulling out their iPhones.

For insurance companies, the duration of liabilities is different. In particular, life insurance companies owe policyholders a stream of future cash flows over the next 10 years. As a result, assets and liabilities are duration-matched in insurance firms.

The bottom line is that, in a world where mobile banking is more and more widespread, the duration mismatch in the banking sector is a growing risk, and every dollar that leaves the banking sector and goes to other long-term suitable sources of financing for firms and households makes the financial system more stable.

The duration of liabilities in banks is very different from the duration of liabilities in insurance companies
Note: Policyholder liabilities include life insurance reserves, pension entitlements, and miscellaneous liabilities. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of United States, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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Default Rates Are Falling

If the recent high-profile defaults were the beginning of a broader credit cycle, then default rates would be going up.

Instead, default rates are falling, and earnings expectations are revised higher, see the first two charts below.

At the same time, the Atlanta Fed expects GDP growth to come in at 3.8%, significantly above the CBO’s 2% estimate of long-term growth for the US.

The bottom line is that the US economy remains incredibly resilient.

Yes, the labor market shows slower job growth, but the observed slowdown in employment growth is not driven by weaker labor demand but by weaker labor supply because of tighter immigration restrictions, including higher fees on H-1Bs. The Fed has made that clear in this paper. In addition, low jobless claims and the recent rise in the daily data for job openings confirms that the slower job growth is not driven by weaker labor demand but by lower labor supply, see the third chart.

Combined with dollar depreciation, lower oil prices and the One Big Beautiful Bill starting to take effect in a few weeks, the upside risks to growth and inflation are significant, see the fourth chart.

In short, a data dependent Fed would come to the conclusion that it should not cut interest rates next week.

Credit metrics are improving
Sources: Moody’s Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
More S&P 500 firms are raising earnings guidance
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Daily jobs postings have moved higher in recent weeks
Sources: Indeed, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
If the Fed cuts rates, the upside risks to inflation will intensify
Sources: BLS, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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Hybrid in Action: Delivering Bespoke Capital Solutions in a New Market Paradigm

Sitting between private debt and equity, hybrid investments are increasingly in demand as companies continue to face higher borrowing costs, limited access to traditional debt and volatile capital markets. This article, authored by Jason Scheir, Head of Hybrid Value at Apollo, showcases this strategy through three real-world examples.

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Key Takeaways

  • Flexible Capital for Growth: A preferred equity investment enabled an entrepreneur’s fast-growing company to scale without taking on more debt or ceding control.
  • Sponsor Liquidity with Downside Protection: A senior investment in a continuation vehicle supported a sponsor seeking liquidity options for investments in two well-positioned businesses.
  • Balance Sheet Support: A hybrid solution gave a liquidity-constrained public company access to equity-like capital with limited dilution.

Hybrid capital can deliver equity-like returns with credit-like downside protection. Apollo’s approach uses structured features to help both issuers and investors navigate uncertain markets.

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The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.


Important Disclosure Information

This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.

Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (“S&P 500”) Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies by market value.

Additional information may be available upon request.

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The Apollo Academy is for informational and educational purposes only and nothing contained herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. They are not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this website will come to pass. For additional information, please see the disclaimers included in each piece of content or the legal page of our website here.